Pathology of Financial Imbalance of Iranian Pension System and its Modeling Based on Graph Model

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
N. shokri 1
A. Assari 1
A. asgary 2
A. Mozayani 3
N. akbari 4
1 Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 york university
3 Research Institute of Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
4 Faculty of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
Abstract
Financial imbalances and disparity between resources and expenditures in Iranian pension funds have made the need for reforms inevitable. Today, the share of government aid from public expenditures to two Civil and Military pension funds has increased from about 11 percent in 2013 to about 19 percent in 2021, and this trend has been increasing in recent years. However, despite the perception of the crisis in the pension system of various actors, these reforms have not been implemented. In this regard, the present study seeks pathology and finds a solution to solve the crisis of the Iranian pension system during 2013-2021. Due to the existence of different actors and stakeholders, one of the non-quantitative methods of game theory models, called the graph model, was used to resolve the conflicts. This model is an important tool for modeling and analyzing complex problems, expresses the most likely consequences of various problems in the world, and finally provide guidelines for its improvement. The modeling results of the retirement crisis show that the fourth mode of the model, i.e. the state of reform, is more likely to occur. Therefore, the current situation is not a stable one for all players, and they are motivated to leave. According to the results, limiting government support, changing the pension system, and carrying out structural and parametric reforms will improve the current situation.

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Subjects

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The Journal of Research in Humanities
Volume 30, Issue 2
January 2023
Pages 131-162